Coil price trend in August

Following the cancellation of the export tax rebate for some flat plates in May, the State Council announced on July 29 that the export tax rebate for some cold-rolled and galvanized sheets would be cancelled from August 1. The export tax was reduced from 9%-13% to 0 at current prices. Calculated, the impact of export costs rises by 600-1000 yuan per ton. At the same time, the export tax rate of ferrochrome and high-purity pig iron has been increased. Previously, the market expected an increase in the export tax rate for flat plates, but the current export taxation does not involve hot-rolled flat plates. Today, hot-rolled futures are affected by this and perform strongly.

     ①As for the abolition of export tax rebate rates for some steel products, we believe that more is the need for exports to balance domestic supply and demand. The total export volume of steel products for which export tax rebates were cancelled in the first half of the year was 10.531 million tons, accounting for the total domestic steel products in the first half of the year. About 28% of the export volume. We believe that this policy will be negative for the prices of related products in the short term.
     ②In addition, considering that domestic steel demand will still increase in the second half of the year, the introduction of this tariff adjustment policy also shows the country's determination to reduce crude steel production in the second half of the year. Therefore, the impact on steel prices in the medium term may be More profitable.