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Enterprises should adjust production rhythm reasonably
The impact on the demand side is greater than that on the production side ", which is the basic judgment of many people in the steel industry on the impact of the epidemic. In the raw material industry, many iron and steel enterprises are always paying attention to the changes of downstream market demand when the market supply exceeds the demand.
There are signs of contraction in demand in some areas. Some enterprises said that although the production of domestic automobile main engine plants has been resumed in recent years, the output is not as good as before, and the order volume of automobile steel has declined in April; some enterprises reported that the continuous spread of international epidemic has a great impact on the export of downstream industries such as steel and home appliances, and the demand for steel export is not optimistic.
What more people see is a variety of positive factors. "In the short term, the impact of the epidemic on the steel industry is mainly concentrated in the first quarter. With the further consolidation of the epidemic prevention and control trend, the strengthening of counter cyclical adjustment and the implementation of measures to stabilize growth, the steel demand is expected to stabilize and recover." He Wenbo, Secretary of the Party committee and executive chairman of CISA, predicted that from the second quarter, the production and operation situation of the iron and steel industry would improve.
Construction steel demand is expected to rise. "New infrastructure is very hot recently. We are also paying close attention to see what opportunities it will bring to the steel industry." In Jia Fuling's view, although the new infrastructure construction highlights "digitalization", most of the equipment manufacturing is still inseparable from steel. Li Xinchuang, President of metallurgical industry planning and Research Institute, also believes that in the next step, infrastructure such as railway, highway, airport and port, as well as 5g base station, UHV, new energy vehicle charging pile construction and other construction projects related to new urbanization will be successively implemented, which will further promote the demand for construction steel.
The total demand for manufacturing steel is stable. "After industrial enterprises return to work and resume production, they can make up for the loss of production during the shutdown period by improving the utilization rate of production capacity. The disruption of production rhythm in a short period of time has limited impact on the demand for steel for manufacturing throughout the year." He Wenbo added that during the epidemic period, small healthy household appliances such as disinfection cabinets, sterilizer dishwashers and air purifiers will grow against the trend, which will also bring new demand growth points to the steel industry.
It is not necessary to be pessimistic or blindly optimistic to study and judge the market in a special period. According to statistics, although the overall inventory of key iron and steel enterprises decreased in March, the overall inventory is still at a high level. Looking at the enterprise inventory index, it was 18.067 million tons in late March, down 15.6% from the peak in the first ten days of March. However, compared with the beginning of the year, it still had an increase of 89.5%. Chen Derong, chairman of Baowu iron and Steel Group, analyzed that the normal operation of the iron and steel industry needs to rely on the resumption of production in the downstream industry. Although the downstream enterprises are returning to work in succession, it still needs a process to improve the capacity utilization ratio, and the iron and steel enterprises need to wait for a while to digest the inventory.
"One market, one activity." In Jia faling's view, under the current situation, steel enterprises should be more stable and stable. "In production, production should be carefully scheduled according to the release pace of demand. If everyone" does more quickly, the inventory problem will be more serious; in sales, small profits and more sales, hurry up shipment, try to collect funds, and then expand production step by step according to the situation. " Angang Steel Group has also adopted a series of countermeasures: under the premise of ensuring production, control reasonable inventory, reduce the occupation of inventory funds; control the pace of procurement, do a good job in the prevention and control of procurement risks; make good use of futures tools, reduce procurement costs, and avoid market risks
Recently, CISA has called on iron and steel enterprises to keep an eye on the downstream demand dynamics, adjust the production pace in a timely and reasonable manner, strengthen industry self-discipline, consciously prevent and control risks, and avoid vicious competition according to their orders, funds, transportation and other situations. According to the data in March, the steel industry basically achieved this point - according to the statistics, the cumulative average daily output of crude steel and steel for key steel enterprises was 1.695 million tons and 1.766 million tons respectively, down 3.1% and 1.7% on a month on month basis.