China's galvanized sheet in 2019

According to the production situation of the steel plant, on November 8, according to 37 hot-rolled plate and coil production enterprises monitored by Mysteel, the overall operating rate was 92.19%, the cycle to cycle ratio decreased by 1.56%, the capacity utilization rate of the steel plant was 85.45%, and the cycle to cycle ratio increased by 1.9%. Although it is lower than that of the same period last year, it is still at a high level compared with other varieties. Although the spot price has dropped a lot recently, it seems that the production of hot-rolled coil has not been reduced too much at the steel plant end. There is still profit margin for long-term hot-rolled plate and coil enterprises, and the decline of spot market is not enough to make them transfer capacity on a large scale. However, with the increase of import resources, a large number of low-cost resources hit the domestic market. But the domestic price is on the high side, the export situation will continue to turn bad. If the steel plant does not transfer capacity or actively reduce production, the price may continue to move down.

Compared with the continuous capacity utilization rate of more than 80% of hot-rolled coil, the operation rate of galvanized coil is acceptable, but the capacity utilization rate is significantly lower than the same period of the previous two years. According to the latest data, the capacity utilization rate of 130 galvanizing enterprises with the same caliber is only 64.31%, down 7.49% from the same period last year. It can also be seen that steel mills may not be active in the production of zinc plating. Long process enterprises prefer products with larger profit margin, while short process enterprises are constrained by the fact that most of the cost of raw materials end is also produced according to orders, so there is basically no inventory left. This year's demand for galvanizing is indeed poor. The golden nine silver ten's sales peak season has basically failed, and there is no obvious bright spot in the home appliance and automobile industry, which makes it difficult for the steel plant to have a significant incremental performance in production. This low-level operation trend may continue until this year.

In terms of the price difference between varieties, the trend of hot-rolled coil and galvanized coil is basically the same. In 2017, the price difference between them gradually decreased from the maximum of 1100 yuan / ton to 650 yuan / ton, with the fluctuation of more than 400 yuan / ton. In 2018, it was relatively stable, and one side was not significantly stronger than the other, which was basically maintained at 700-800 yuan / ton, and some times reached 1000 yuan / ton. By 2019, the price of galvanizing had slowly dropped from a high of 4800 yuan / ton in April to 4500 yuan / ton in November, and only dropped 300 yuan / ton in nearly six months. However, the hot-rolled coil dropped from 4000 yuan / ton to 3600 yuan / ton. From the drop point of view, hot rolled coil is more than galvanized coil.